Enrollment Trends and Projections April 2017
Enrollment trends and data contribute to staffing, budget and program decisions each year. The last demographic study was prepared for the Bainbridge Island School District in April, 2012. It has become a standard practice for the district to work with a consultant to review and update demographic information periodically. The 2012 study forecasted enrollment through 2021. Recently, the District again contracted with Education Data Solutions, LLC
The 2017 study examines enrollment and demographic trends through 2026. The purpose of this examination is to provide an update of the long range enrollment projections for the School District. As part of the process, low, medium and high range forecasts, by grade level, have been developed. It is important to note that school projections beyond a few years are less reliable.
While enrollment has fluctuated in the past few years, numbers have decreased by 76, from October 2011 to October 2016. Lower numbers may be due to factors such as low birth cohorts and/or housing foreclosures.
Considering recent home sales, new housing units and projected population growth trends, the medium forecast indicates a modest enrollment growth over the next five years. Low, medium and high range alternatives are outlined in the study, with the medium range forecast being the preferred assumption. In summary, the study does not expect significant changes in student enrollment over the next 10 years.